Why Football Favourites Lose: Understanding Unexpected Results

Football favourites get most of the attention among bettors. If a strong team plays against an underdog, it is easy to think that the result is predestined. This is because a favourite has better players, has been performing well lately and occupies a much higher place in the league standings.

But football works differently.

There always are matches when strong favourites lose games that they were supposed to win. This can happen due to poor finishing or a defensive mistake, as well as just due to the underdog showing its best performance.

Understanding the reasons for such outcomes can help a bettor to make the right decisions.

Being a Favourite Does Not Mean That You Will Win

Favourites are teams which according to all available data and market opinions are supposed to win.

Being a favourite means that a team has shorter betting odds but not that the team will actually win.

A team may have a better squad, better position in the league, good recent performance and rich history, but none of these things will matter in case of an unfavourable result.

This is why football matches should be treated as probabilities and not as certainties.

A team may have 80% chances of winning the match, but this does not mean that the other side cannot win.

Bad Finishing May Ruin Strong Performance

One of the reasons for such a situation can be poor finishing.

The favourite may dominate the possession, have some goal scoring opportunities, but fail to score. As a result, an underdog needs only one good chance to score.

This can be especially frustrating for bettors, because the game can seem to go exactly as they expected until the final score shows a different outcome.

Goals decide the football matches, and dominating the game is no guarantee for dominating the scoreboard.

Good Defensive Performance of Underdogs

Not always an underdog tries to win by attacking.

Sometimes the right way for them is to defend deeply, stay well organized and play on counterattack.

Inability to break down a compact defence can make a favourite frustrated and force him to take unnecessary risks and leave spaces, and this can result in conceding a goal.

This is why the idea of comparing teams in terms of league positions can be misleading while making football predictions.

Home Advantages Can Change the Outcome

Playing at home can be a big advantage.

The team knows the field, has the support of fans and feels more comfortable with its match routine. Even the weaker team can become much more competitive at home.

This is especially important in cases when a major club has to play against a weak opponent.

Instead of asking "Which team is stronger?", it can be more interesting to ask:

"How does each of the teams usually perform in this particular situation?"

Injuries and Suspensions Can Reduce Team Strength

Strength of the team can vary significantly depending on injuries and suspensions.

For instance, imagine that the favourite team is missing its main striker, midfielder and central defender. The name of the team and its reputation remain the same, but its strength on matchday can be quite different from that.

This is why prior to making a football prediction it is worth checking:

• Injuries

• Suspensions

• Expected lineups

• Players returning after injury

• Squad rotation

• Recent team news

The favourite team with several key absent players can be quite different from that which was showing great performances.

Congested Fixture Schedule Can Affect the Teams

Major teams usually play many matches in a short time period.

A team playing in the league, in domestic cups and in European competition may have to play matches almost every second or third day. So managers usually rotate squads in order to protect their key players.

This can lead to surprising results.

The favourite team may still be the stronger one, but fatigue and squad rotations can affect its performance.

This is why the previous match of the team should also be considered. While preparing for its next match, a team which had to play a tough European match can approach it quite differently from the team which had enough time to prepare.

Different Motivations of the Opponents

Another reason for favourites losing matches is that the level of motivation of the teams can be different.

A team that is struggling for the championship, fighting for Champions League qualification or survival will have big motivation for the match, while its opponent may have no pressure and can play more freely.

The opposite case can also be.

While preparing for an important cup or European match, the favourite team may treat the league match as secondary.

This is why understanding of the tournament, the stage of the season and the needs of the teams for each match can increase the accuracy of football analysis.

Small Moments in Football Games Can Affect Their Outcomes

Football is a low-scoring game as compared to many other major sports.

It means that a small event can completely change the outcome of the match.

A missed penalty, red card, mistake of the goalkeeper, deflection of the ball or late set piece can completely change a match.

This is why even careful analysis of football cannot exclude uncertainty.

Even a prediction based on all possible factors may fail, because football always includes unpredictable events.

Do Not Mix Up Famous Teams and Their Form

One of the most frequent mistakes that bettors make is putting trust in famous teams.

A team may have a great reputation and long tradition of success, but past achievements cannot guarantee success in the current match.

This is why the most important factor is the current form of the team.

Before backing a favourite, check the recent results, goals scored, goals conceded, home and away performances and quality of opponents of the team.

A famous team in bad form will provide you with different prediction opportunities than the same team in good form.

How Football Prediction Sites Can Help You

Prediction websites can be another useful source of information for the research of upcoming matches.

For example, GreatPredict provides free football predictions and daily football tips for different betting markets. This information can be helpful when comparing your opinion with an opinion of another football analysis.

But football prediction sites should not be used instead of your own thinking.

Just consider the logic behind a certain prediction and check the statistics, team news and other factors in order to understand whether a certain selection makes sense.

What Should You Check Prior to Backing a Favourite?

Prior to selecting a football favourite, consider the following questions:

Is the team in good form now?

How does the team perform at home and away?

Do important players miss the game?

Has the team been playing recently?

Is the opponent hard to break down?

Is the match important for both teams?

Is there any sign of squad rotation?

Do the betting odds reflect the current situation?

All these questions will not guarantee you a successful prediction, but they can help you to avoid making decisions based only on the reputation of the team.

Conclusion

Strong favourites lose matches because being a strong team on paper does not guarantee being a good team in real life.

Poor finishing, good defensive performance, injuries, fatigue, home advantages, different levels of motivation and small events can affect the results of the games. Sometimes the underdog just plays better in this particular match.

The most reasonable approach is to pay attention not to the name of the favourite, but study the current situation and understand the conditions of the match.

GreatPredict can provide you with additional information for the research in the form of free football predictions and daily match analysis.