Kentucky Derby Favorites: Who Is Leading The Odds?
The Kentucky Derby will soon be upon us. Not only is this event one of the most popular sporting contests in the world, but it is also extremely popular among bettors. Last year, more than $200 million was wagered on the Kentucky Derby.
Many people take a less-than-scientific approach to their horse racing wagers. They’ll throw ten dollars at a horse because they like its name, and because maybe they’ve been invited to a Kentucky Derby viewing party.
You can get lucky in this way, but it’s better to be precise. Who is favored to win the Kentucky Derby this year?
Who is leading the odds?
The projected odds at the time of writing put Bob Baffert’s Barnes ahead, with 8-1 odds. Then it is Citizen Bull - also from Bob Baffert - with 9-1, all other three-year-old horses at 9-2, and Burnham Square, trained by Ian Wilkes, at 15-1.
Odds aren’t exactly the same thing as favorites. As you research your betting strategy, you will find analysts—people who actually pay attention to horse racing beyond Triple Crown Events—provide detailed lists explaining their favorites. You can find more information here: twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/betting/
One of the maddening things about these analyst favorites is that every website will have slightly different picks.
Sometimes, the picks will be very different.
What is the takeaway? Predicting horse races is a very imprecise art.
How much do the odds matter?
Favored horses win the Kentucky Derby about 30% of the time. That’s actually a pretty sound estimate. It’s not quite as precise as March Madness odds—where the number one seed wins about 60% of the time—but for an event as fast-paced as the Derby, it’s sturdy enough.
Still, stunning upsets aren’t terribly uncommon either. In 2023, it was won by a horse that went in with 15-1 odds. In fact, there are many examples of horses with 50 or more to one odds grabbing the big prize.
Why is there so much volatility?
They call the Kentucky Derby the “two most exciting minutes in sports.” It’s an incredibly fast-paced event, during which time anything can happen. Again, you can compare it a little bit to March Madness.
During the NCAA basketball playoffs, teams play in a single-game elimination format. To nab an upset, you only need to be excellent for forty minutes.
So it is at the Derby. Here, just a flash of greatness is all it takes for a horse to go from zero to hero. There is also a relatively limited amount of data.
Where professional sports teams will often play 40, 50, or even 100 regular season events before entering major tournaments, the Derby is held in May. Many of the contenders will have only participated in a handful of races going in.
This makes it relatively easy for a horse to go underrated. Keep in mind that all twenty of the horses entered in the Derby this year are excellent. That level of talent, combined with incomplete information and a very fast-paced event makes upsets very possible.
What does this mean for your betting strategy?
Betting on horse racing may be a little imprecise—particularly when so many of the people placing wagers on the Derby only watch one race a year—but there are ways to hedge your bets.
One of the smartest things you can do is spread your money around a little bit. Let’s say you are willing to bet $50 total on the Kentucky Derby.
You could put that all on one horse. Barnes, the favored horse, pays 8-1. This means that if you bet on Barnes and win, you’ll wind up with $400 in your pocket. Not a bad payout.
On the other hand, if you put it all on Barnes and it loses, all your money is gone.
What happens if you spread that same $50 across Barnes, Citizen Bull (9-1), and Burnham Square (15-1)—the three horses with the best odds?
For easy math, let’s say $16 per horse. If Citizen Bull wins, you leave with $144—almost a $100 profit. If Burnham Square wins, it’s a $240 payout—almost $200 profit.
When you bet on several horses, you obviously accept the fact that most of your wagers will lose. However, if even one of the horses you pick does win, you’ll wind up coming out ahead.
Follow Your Gut
The truth is that no one has any idea who will win the Kentucky Derby. It’s all a bunch of educated guesses. Do plenty of research so that you can make an informed decision. At the end of the day, though, understand that there is no sure thing.
Any one of the twenty horses entered could win. That’s what makes the race so exciting. The key as a fan is to bet within your means, trust your gut, and have fun.
